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Northern Lights Forecast

On this page we have collected a variety of resources to monitor current solar weather activity which will have a bearing on Auroral activity. Please note that while all resources have been taken from respected third party sources, we cannot be held responsible for their accuracy. There are also a couple of other important factors to remember. Firstly, many of the destinations we send our clients to have excellent opportunities to spot the Northern Lights when the Kp-Index is as low as one, so sightings aren't entirely dependent on high readings. And secondly, we would not recommend using this resource in place of the advice of local guides. Just because the dashboard has indicated that there may be activity doesn't mean that other factors, which your guides will be aware of, such as cloud cover don't need to be taken into consideration. On top of this, some flareups last only minutes and if there's a localised geomagnetic flareup in progress while it's dark outside then as long as there isn't thick cloud cover, your guides may tell you ignore these models and look North!

Auroral Oval


source: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov

This plot shows the current extent and position of the auroral oval in the northern hemisphere, extrapolated from measurements taken during the most recent polar pass of the NOAA POES satellite
For more information please see the SWPC.

 

Estimated North European Forecast

Europe Aurora Forcast
source: http://www.gi.alaska.edu

3-Hour Kp Index

Aurora KP Index
source: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov

What the KP Level Means

The Kp Index is a weighted average of data gathered from a variety of space weather reporting stations.


0. Nothing
1. Quiet - Forecast: Weather permitting, quiet displays will be visible directly overhead in northern Iceland and Norway, and visible low on the horizon as far south as Rovaniemi, Finland and Mo i Rana, Norway.
2. Low - Forecast: Weather permitting, low-level displays will be visible overhead in Tromsø, Norway and Reykjavik, Iceland. Also visible low on the northern horizon from as far south as Umea, Sweden; Trondheim, Norway and the Faroe Islands.
3. Moderate - Forecast: Weather permitting, moderate displays will be visible overhead in Tromsø, Norway and Reykjavik, Iceland. Also visible low on the horizon as far south as Sundsvall, Sweden and Arkhangelsk, Russia.
4. Active - Forecast: Weather permitting, active auroral displays will be visible overhead from Tromsø, Norway to as far south as Umea, Sweden and Trondheim, Norway. Also visible low on the horizon in Oslo, Stockholm and Helsinki.
5. High - Forecast: Weather permitting, highly active auroral displays will be visible overhead from Tromsø, Norway to as far south as Sundsvall, Sweden and Arkhangelsk, Russia. Also visible low on the horizon from Edinburgh and Valga, Estonia.
6+. Very High- Forecast: Weather permitting, highly active auroral displays will be visible overhead over most of Scandinavia. Also visible low on the horizon from places like York in England. The higher the index, the further south it will be seen on the horizon.

ACE Real-Time Solar Wind Pages

Click to get values and an explanation

Average over last 15 minutes from Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. Simply speaking the more the dials are in the red, the better for Aurora spotting!

Global Overview of Kp-Index Impact on Aurora Sightings

Overal KP Index

Below is the latest SWPC Weekly Solar Activity Report and Forecast

Source: Space Weather Prediction Center (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov)

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